The People’s Party Faces Setbacks in Local Elections
In recent elections, the newly formed People’s Party (PP), the successor to the Move Forward Party, has faced significant challenges. Despite high expectations, the PP’s performance in local elections, including the Provincial Administrative Organization (PAO) races in Udon Thani, Petchaburi, and Nakhon Si Thammarat, was disappointing. Their defeat in Udon Thani, in particular, raises important questions about the party’s strategy.
The Udon Thani PAO Election: A Key Setback
Udon Thani is a province with a strong historical connection to the Thaksin Shinawatra-led red shirt movement, making it a critical battleground for political parties. The PP’s defeat in Udon Thani was not entirely unexpected, given the province’s past loyalty to the Pheu Thai Party. In the 2023 national elections, Pheu Thai dominated, winning 41% of the vote despite losing a few seats to the now-defunct Move Forward and Thai Sang Thai Parties.
Thaksin’s Strategic Mistake
Pheu Thai sent its leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, for his first campaign rally since his return to Thailand in 2023. His appearance was intended to reassert the party’s dominance. However, during his rally, Thaksin made a strategic mistake by directly attacking the People’s Party and its leaders, including Thanathorn Juangroongrueangkit. This gave Thanathorn an opportunity to respond, accusing Thaksin of exacerbating problems rather than helping resolve them.
The People’s Party Gained Votes, but Not Enough to Win
Despite the challenges, the PP did gain votes in the Udon Thani PAO election compared to the 2020 race. The party’s candidate secured 268,675 votes, up from 185,801 in 2020. However, it was not enough to overtake Pheu Thai, which garnered 327,487 votes, securing a clear victory.
Disappointing Results for the Progressives
This election continues the People’s Party’s losing streak in local PAO elections. Despite various iterations of the progressive movement, no party has yet won a single PAO seat. These losses raise doubts about the PP’s ability to translate national momentum into local successes.
The Structural Challenges of Local Elections
Local elections present unique challenges for the PP, which struggles to tap into clientelist networks or take advantage of early voting systems. However, it’s important to note that the PP’s performance in local elections doesn’t necessarily reflect national sentiment. The success of the Move Forward Party in the 2023 national elections despite similar local setbacks suggests that the PP may still have a future in national politics.
Thaksin’s Criticism of the PP’s Leadership
Thaksin’s rally speech highlighted another issue for the People’s Party: the party’s reliance on the image of former leader Pita Limjaroenrat, who was banned from political office. Thaksin pointed out that the PP had failed to focus on its current leader, Nattapong Rueangpanyawut. This misstep may indicate a deeper leadership issue within the PP, which could hinder their electoral prospects.
The Changing Political Landscape: Is Nattapong the Right Leader?
The leadership dynamics within the People’s Party have become more apparent as polling shifts. In a recent September poll by NIDA, Paetongtarn Shinawatra of Pheu Thai outperformed Nattapong Rueangpanyawut, signaling that the latter may not have the appeal needed to win over the electorate. This raises questions about whether a leadership change is necessary for the PP to regain momentum.
The Role of the Opposition: A Wake-Up Call for the People’s Party
As the PP reflects on these setbacks, it’s clear that the current strategy may need a major overhaul. Nattapong’s leadership style and the PP’s approach to local elections may no longer be sufficient to secure victories in key regions. The party may need to rethink its national and local strategies if it hopes to compete with the established Pheu Thai Party.
Nakhon Si Thammarat: A Minor Election with Major Implications
Meanwhile, the PAO election in Nakhon Si Thammarat, while less significant nationally, also highlights the shifting political landscape. Warin Chinnawong’s victory, supported by the Bhumjai Thai Party and others, further weakened the Democrat Party, which has been struggling to maintain its influence in the South. This race serves as a reminder of the precarious position of smaller parties in Thai politics.
The Road Ahead: Reflection and Strategy for 2025
With more PAO elections scheduled for next year, both the PP and the Democrat Party have significant reflection to do. The results of these local races will likely shape the political strategies of both parties as they prepare for the next national election.